The growing belief among executives in the industry is the Mets will trade Justin Verlander before Tuesday’s 6 p.m. deadline, with the Astros, Dodgers and Orioles appearing as the frontrunners to acquire him.
But Steve Cohen’s willingness to pay down the approximately $93 million that Verlander is owed going forward — if his 2025 $35 million option is triggered — would potentially put any contender into play.
The personal connection between the 40-year-old ace and Astros owner Jim Crane is at least part of the intrigue today.
Crane personally handled Verlander’s last extension and will be heavily involved in a Verlander decision/pursuit.
But of the three teams known to be in this hunt, the Astros have the least “big prospect” collateral.
The Orioles and Dodgers have the farm system depth to complete any deal, especially since Cohen has displayed a willingness to pay what’s needed to land prospects the organization covets.
However, current Astros standouts Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and JP France were hardly considered top prospects before emerging; a familiar trait in recent years with players who nevertheless broke out with the team.
In other words, beauty and prospects are in the eye of the beholder.
In addition, Houston has two righty-hitting center fielders with lots of club control in Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers. Could one of them factor into a deal?
Do the Astros also feel triggered to upgrade because two other contenders in the AL West, the Rangers and Angels, have been such aggressive buyers during this deadline?
Both the Dodgers and Astros can still use starting pitching — the Orioles lack a rotation anchor.
The Dodgers, even after acquiring Lance Lynn, can use another starter, considering how much they are depending on rookies Michael Grove, Bobby Miller and Emmet Sheehan.
Verlander owns a no-trade clause and has mentioned many times that family considerations would impact where he would go.
He obviously has a Houston history, including winning two World Series with the Astros.
But will he and his family want to return or might they prefer a big coastal city – Los Angeles or just stay in New York?
When Houston first acquired Verlander from Detroit in 2017, current Orioles GM Mike Elias was the Astros’ assistant GM. However, he was not a driving force on that deal.